Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport’s highest temperature on 23 July 2026 will be set by the day’s maximum reading in Celsius, and the market is currently pricing **23°C** as the frontrunner at **28%**, with **24°C** next at **24%**. That is a fairly compressed distribution around the low-20s, which is consistent with July climatology in Sao Paulo: typical July highs are about **23°C** and lows around **12°C**, so the crowd is not leaning on an extreme heat outcome. [1][3]

For context, this contract is best read as a narrow temperature-band trade rather than a directional weather call. The 0% YES implied probability indicates the market is assigning no chance to the specific strike currently labelled YES, but the platform’s own outcome grid still shows meaningful odds across adjacent bins, which matters more than the headline figure for a daily high at a single airport station. On a seasonal basis, Sao Paulo in July usually sits close to the boundary between mild and warm afternoons, so small deviations in cloud cover, rainfall, or wind can shift the final reading by a degree or two. [1][3]

The main catalysts are the morning-to-afternoon forecast updates and whether any rain bands suppress the daytime high at Guarulhos. Current live weather for Sao Paulo points to a rainy setup and a forecast high around **76°F/24°C**, which sits in line with the market’s centre of mass rather than an outlier scenario. Traders will also watch how quickly the airport warms before the daily maximum is locked in by the resolution source, because a brief sunny window can be enough to push the result into the higher adjacent bracket. [2][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.