Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

São Paulo’s 7 August high is trading against a settled late-winter climate backdrop, with most forecasters clustering daytime maxima around 25°C and only a modest spread into the high 20s. AccuWeather’s August outlook puts São Paulo’s daily highs mostly between 68°F and 80°F, with the monthly average near 74°F, while other climate references also place August highs around 25°C and lows near 12–14°C[1][6][8][9]. Against that baseline, the current 0% YES crowd-implied probability looks detached from the meteorological consensus rather than from an extreme weather setup, especially since this contract resolves off the airport station’s recorded Daily Observations, not the summary high/low panel.

Comparable August cases in São Paulo usually resolve in the mid-20s Celsius unless a stronger warm surge, cloud cover, or rainfall pushes the day lower or higher than average. Polymarket’s own market display shows trader consensus centred on 25°C to 27°C, with 25°C leading at 30% and 26°C at 23%, which is materially above the 0% YES headline and implies the crowd sees a fairly tight distribution around the climatological norm[2]. That pattern is consistent with the city’s winter climatology, where clear, dry days can still warm quickly but the airport reading often stays close to the low-to-mid 20s Celsius[4][6][14].

For traders, the key catalysts are the live airport observations, not local city forecasts, because the market can still move if the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos station prints a late-afternoon spike before the first 8 August datapoint is published. The contract rules also matter: revisions inside the settlement window count until the first datapoint for the following date appears, so any backfilled Weather Underground update could still change the outcome[2]. Near-term forecast services currently show a dry, sunny day around 25°C to 29°C, which supports the middle bins more than the tail bins and leaves little obvious case for a very low or very high final print[5][7][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.