Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s July 14, 2026, high temperature at the International Airport will settle this weather contract, with the crowd currently assigning zero per cent probability to any outcome above the lowest defined range. That 0% YES implies traders expect the peak heat to fall well below the threshold, a stance that aligns with the city’s typical midsummer climate rather than an extreme outlier.

Historically, San Francisco rarely exceeds 80°F in July, with the airport station recording a maximum of 83°F only once since 2000, according to National Weather Service archives. Most July days sit between 65°F and 75°F, making a breach of higher ranges an anomaly. The current implied probability mirrors this pattern, suggesting no significant divergence from sportsbook lines or analyst consensus, which also treat extreme heat as highly unlikely for this location and date.

Traders should monitor the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s weekly weather outlooks and any emerging Pacific high-pressure anomalies that could push temperatures upward. A recent NOAA bulletin noted a strengthening ridge of heat along the West Coast, though it remains focused on inland valleys rather than coastal zones like San Francisco [1]. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 14 July 2026, the window for meaningful shifts is narrow, and current odds appear stable across platforms.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.