Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a real-world event that determines the outcome of a weather-based prediction contract. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome suggests the market believes the temperature will fall outside the specified range, yet this figure diverges sharply from cross-platform data. Polymarket shows a 47% implied probability for 30°C, 29.8% for 29°C, and a strong 75.5% consensus that temperatures will reach 31°C or higher, indicating a meaningful disconnect between the two platforms’ pricing.

Historical records frame this divergence: Qingdao’s mean July maximum sits near 25–26°C, but recent years have seen above-normal warmth, with China recording its hottest July since 1961 in 2024, averaging 23.21°C nationally [7]. The city’s hottest day ever hit 33.1°C on 9 August 2018, and July 2026 is already trending warmer than average, with strong scientific consensus pointing to above-normal summer heat [1][5]. This context suggests the 0% probability may be an outlier compared to climatological trends and cross-market signals.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration and real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for any anomalies in temperature readings [1]. Recent reports confirm China’s record-breaking July heat, reinforcing the likelihood of elevated temperatures in coastal Shandong [5]. With the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 9 July, any sudden shifts in forecast models or station data could rapidly alter implied probabilities, especially if temperatures breach the 30°C threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.