Highest temperature in Paris on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 24 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine which range this market settles into. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical data for the station. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either confident the market's temperature bands exclude realistic outcomes, or the contract has attracted minimal liquidity and positioning.

Paris experiences peak summer heat in late July, with historical highs at Le Bourget typically ranging between 28–32°C during this period. The 1976 heatwave saw temperatures exceed 38°C across the region, whilst more recent Julys have produced highs in the 25–30°C band. Seasonal climate data and comparable years provide the baseline for assessing which temperature ranges carry genuine probability mass. The absence of meaningful odds across competing platforms suggests either sparse market depth or consensus that certain ranges are implausibly priced.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European weather forecasts as mid-July 2026 approaches, particularly high-pressure systems developing over continental Europe. Météo-France's extended outlooks and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data will sharpen temperature expectations 10–14 days ahead. Any significant heatwave warnings or anomalous atmospheric patterns reported by major meteorological services could shift positioning. The settlement mechanism's reliance on a single airport station means localised microclimatic factors—urban heat island effects, cloud cover timing, wind patterns—carry outsized importance relative to broader regional forecasts.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.