Highest temperature in Paris on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport is set to record its peak temperature for 20 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance of any outcome other than the frontrunner range of 24°C. This near-certainty aligns with historical July patterns in the region, where mid-summer highs typically cluster between 22°C and 26°C, making lower or extreme outliers statistically improbable. Comparable cases from the past decade show that temperatures below 21°C in late July are rare events, usually tied to unusual Atlantic storm systems, while the 24°C mark reflects the median expectation for this period.

Traders should monitor the daily weather bulletins from Météo-France and real-time updates on Wunderground, the official resolution source, as cloud cover and wind shifts could alter the final reading. A recent forecast from BBC Weather indicates stable high-pressure conditions over northern France for the coming week, reinforcing the likelihood of a clear, warm day consistent with the 24°C consensus [1]. No major announcements or scheduled disruptions are expected to influence the temperature, but sudden changes in atmospheric pressure could serve as a catalyst for probability shifts if they deviate from the current model.

The divergence between the 0% implied probability for non-24°C outcomes and the 100% market weight on 24°C suggests minimal odds movement across platforms, with Polymarket and Kalshi lines effectively locked. Analyst consensus remains firmly on the median range, with little room for speculative deviation unless unexpected meteorological data emerges before the settlement window closes on 20 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.