Highest temperature in Paris on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is currently experiencing passing clouds and a temperature of 93°F (33.9°C) as the day on 12 July 2026 nears its end, with the settlement window closing just hours away [2]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome reflects the market’s certainty that the day’s peak will fall within a predictable band, given that Paris’s historical record stands at 42.6°C, set on 25 July 2019, while the national record for France reached 45.9°C in southern Gallargues-le-Montueux [3][1]. No July 12 in recent decades has approached these extremes in the capital, framing the current odds as a rational assessment of typical mid-summer variability rather than an outlier event.

Traders should monitor the final hourly updates from the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station on Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as the official daily maximum is compiled after midnight UTC [1]. While no new heatwave announcements have been issued for the region today, the Met Office notes that conditions across northern Europe are expected to stabilise by Friday, suggesting no sudden thermal spikes are imminent [5]. The divergence between sportsbook-style weather lines (which often favour higher ranges during heat alerts) and the 0% prediction-market probability highlights a consensus that this date lacks the atmospheric drivers—such as sustained southerly flow or clear skies overnight—required to breach 40°C in Paris.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.