Highest temperature in Paris on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 18 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on that date. The current crowd-implied probability across prediction markets stands at 0%, suggesting traders are pricing this as either an extremely unlikely outcome or reflecting uncertainty about which specific temperature range will resolve as the highest.

August temperatures at Le Bourget historically range between 15–28°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 30°C during heat waves. The 2003 European heat wave saw Paris record 40.3°C, though such events remain statistically rare. Recent summers (2022–2024) have shown elevated temperatures relative to the 1990–2020 baseline, with August highs frequently exceeding 25°C. This historical context suggests the market's 0% probability may reflect either a very narrow or very broad temperature band being priced, rather than genuine impossibility of any outcome.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from mid-August 2025 onwards, particularly models from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Atmospheric pressure patterns, jet stream positioning, and any developing heat domes over continental Europe will determine whether August 2026 tracks towards typical or anomalous temperatures. The resolution source's specificity—requiring Daily Observations data rather than summary highs—means traders must verify methodological consistency at Le Bourget, as station-specific recording practices can occasionally diverge from broader regional patterns.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on August 18? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.