Highest temperature in Paris on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris airport temperatures on 11 August will be settled from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations for Paris-Le Bourget, so the key question is the highest *observed* reading at the station, not the summary high shown elsewhere. Current cross-platform pricing is already split: Polymarket is effectively centred on 32°C, with 33°C and 31°C the nearest alternatives, while the crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome is 0%, which suggests the contract is being treated as mispriced or not yet aligned to the eventual resolution band.[6]

Historical comparables point to a low-30s baseline with occasional sharp upside. Long-run August averages for Paris are around 25–27°C for highs, while date-specific records for 11 August are just under 40°C, including 39.5°C to 39.6°C in 2003 depending on the source consulted.[3][4][2] That makes a 32°C finish materially above seasonal norms but still well below the extreme tail; in practical terms, the market is deciding between a warm summer day and a modest heatwave, not a record-breaker.[2][4][12]

The immediate catalysts are the late-morning to afternoon temperature trajectory, any heat warnings, and whether cloud cover or a sea-breeze suppresses the peak before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Forecast providers are already flagging hot conditions in Paris, with AccuWeather and The Weather Network both pointing to highs near 32-34°C and AccuWeather issuing an extreme-heat warning, while longer-range outlooks into 13-14 August are hotter still, which may anchor trader expectations around an elevated but not exceptional reading for today.[8][9][13] Since the market resolves from the station’s daily observations, any discrepancy between headline forecast highs and the recorded hourly maximum matters less than the exact peak reported in the source table.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.