Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

A severe heatwave is currently gripping the East Coast, with New York City’s LaGuardia Airport recording triple-digit temperatures and a heat index hitting 106°F in Central Park. This extreme event, described by the National Weather Service as the hottest three-day stretch in the region since 2010, has pushed temperatures well above the July average of 84°F, creating a backdrop where daily highs are expected to remain in the 100–105°F range.

Historical precedents for such intense July heat in NYC are rare but significant; the city has not experienced consecutive triple-digit days since 1999, yet current conditions suggest a potential break from that trend. Polymarket data indicates a 100% probability for the 100–101°F range, starkly diverging from the 0% implied probability for lower outcomes on the same platform, while no major sportsbooks currently offer lines on this specific temperature contract, leaving prediction markets as the primary venue for odds comparison.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s ongoing heat advisories and the expected timeline for relief, which is forecast to begin late in the holiday weekend. CNN reports that the peak heat has moved into the Interstate 95 corridor and is expected to persist through Friday, with Washington, DC projected to reach 103°F and Philadelphia near 104°F, reinforcing the likelihood that LaGuardia will record temperatures within the 100–101°F bracket rather than dropping below 97°F.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.