Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 17 July 2026, with settlement based on Wunderground data for that specific day. While the crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome sits at 0%, this binary framing obscures the granular distribution of likely outcomes on Polymarket, where “86–87°F” commands 52% of the volume and “88–89°F” holds 30% [1]. This divergence highlights a key inefficiency: sportsbooks often offer binary weather contracts with wider spreads, whereas prediction markets like Polymarket allow traders to express precise temperature ranges, creating a more nuanced view of risk than the flat 0% YES line suggests.

Historical July peaks at LaGuardia typically cluster between 85°F and 92°F, with extreme heatwaves pushing past 95°F in recent decades; the current Polymarket distribution aligns closely with this median range, suggesting the 0% YES probability reflects a misaligned binary contract rather than a genuine belief in cooler conditions [2]. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 72-hour forecast for the New York area, particularly any announcements of high-pressure systems or humidity spikes that could elevate temperatures above 87°F [2]. With no major weather disruptions scheduled, the primary catalyst remains the real-time evolution of the AccuWeather RealFeel index, which currently reads 74° but can shift rapidly under changing cloud cover or wind patterns [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.