Highest temperature in NYC on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is set to record its peak heat for 16 July 2026 at LaGuardia Airport, with the outcome determining whether the day breaches specific Fahrenheit thresholds. The Polymarket contract currently shows a 53% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders lean toward a hotter day, though the frontrunner specific range is 92–93°F at 35% probability [1]. This divergence between the binary YES probability and the granular range odds highlights how cross-platform traders interpret the same weather data differently, with some platforms pricing in a higher likelihood of extreme heat than others.

Historical July temperatures at LaGuardia often cluster between 85°F and 95°F, making the 53% YES probability plausible but not definitive. Comparable cases from recent summers show that days reaching 92°F or above occur roughly 40–50% of the time in mid-July, aligning closely with the current market sentiment [1]. The 18% probability assigned to 87°F or below indicates the market expects a warm day, yet the spread between the top two outcomes suggests uncertainty about whether the heat will spike into the 90s or remain moderate.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as the day progresses toward the 12:00 UTC settlement window [1]. No specific weather announcements are scheduled, but the National Weather Service’s historical data for LaGuardia provides a baseline for expected ranges [2]. As the clock ticks, any sudden shifts in cloud cover or humidity could alter the final temperature, making live monitoring essential for those tracking odds movements across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.