Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring an unprecedented heatwave, with LaGuardia Airport recording record-breaking temperatures earlier this month, including a peak of 104°F on July 3 and a historic midnight high of 94°F on July 4. This extreme thermal activity frames the current prediction market for July 12, where the crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any specific outcome, suggesting traders view the settlement as highly uncertain or perhaps mispriced relative to the active heat trend.

Historical data from this July 2026 event shows that East Coast records spanning over a century were shattered simultaneously across a 500-mile corridor, indicating that standard seasonal averages are no longer reliable predictors for mid-July highs in the region. While typical July highs at LaGuardia average around 84°F, the current anomaly has pushed daily peaks well above 100°F, creating a divergence where traditional weather models might underestimate the likelihood of extreme temperatures compared to the live market sentiment.

Traders should monitor the persistence of the high-pressure ridge currently trapping heat over the Northeast, as meteorological forecasts indicate the heatwave may linger through the settlement window on July 12. Recent reporting from Fox Weather confirms that record-setting heat has persisted into the night, with temperatures remaining dangerously elevated even after sunset, suggesting that the catalyst for further record-breaking highs remains active rather than dissipating.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.