Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring a severe heat wave, with LaGuardia Airport recording 104°F earlier this week, surpassing the previous record of 101°F and briefly exceeding temperatures in Phoenix. Despite this extreme activity, the prediction market for the highest temperature on 10 July 2026 shows a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the specific daily peak will fall outside the defined resolution range. This divergence is notable given that sportsbooks and weather analysts typically price in the persistence of such intense atmospheric conditions during active heat events.

Historical data frames this current probability as potentially misaligned with recent trends, as LaGuardia has already broken multiple records in July 2026, including the highest midnight temperature at 94°F. The station’s all-time high is 107°F, and the current heat wave has pushed readings to 104°F, indicating that the atmosphere remains capable of sustaining extreme peaks. Traders should view the 0% line as a stark contrast to the observable reality of a city that has already recorded its warmest midnight on record and tied Central Park’s 100°F benchmark.

Key catalysts include the continued duration of the heat wave and any official updates from the National Weather Service regarding sustained high-pressure systems over the Northeast. Recent reports from Fox Weather confirm the record-breaking nature of this event, noting that the heat lingered into the night after reaching 102°F on Thursday. With settlement ending on 10 July 2026, traders must monitor whether the current extreme conditions persist through the settlement window or if a cooling trend emerges before the deadline.

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Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.