Highest temperature in NYC on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event to watch is the **highest recorded temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 6 August 2026**, with settlement based on the daily maximum published by Wunderground for KLGA. The current crowd price of **0% YES** looks sharply out of line with both the live weather setup and retail market pricing elsewhere: Robinhood’s contract for New York City daily high shows **88°F at 75¢**, **above 89°F at 45¢**, and **above 90°F at 23¢**, while Polyscalping’s market snapshot concentrates most volume in the **88–89°F** and **90–91°F** bands.[1][5]

Historically, August highs in New York often cluster in the upper 80s to low 90s rather than extreme heat, which makes the contract sensitive to small forecast shifts rather than outright record-breaking conditions. AccuWeather’s August outlook shows New York near **88°F/73°F** on 6 August, and WeatherSpark’s climate history for the city points to a typical August maximum around the upper 80s, consistent with a market that should usually trade as a modestly above-80s temperature call rather than a long-shot tail event.[2][7][15] The presence of a Heat Advisory and media forecasts for **upper 80s to lower 90s** also supports a reading closer to those central ranges than to the market’s zero-implied outcome.[10]

For traders, the key catalysts are the **hour-by-hour evolution of the airport forecast**, any change in National Weather Service heat messaging, and whether local showers or cloud cover suppress the afternoon peak. USA Today reported that the heat advisory covers New York through Friday, with heat index values potentially reaching **100–104°F** even as actual air temperatures are expected to top out in the **upper 80s and lower 90s**.[10] That creates a clear gap between “feels like” temperatures and the settlement variable, so the relevant watchpoint is the forecast high for **LaGuardia itself**, not Manhattan-wide headlines or humidity-driven heat index coverage.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.