Highest temperature in NYC on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to establish which temperature band will contain the highest reading at LaGuardia Airport on 11 August 2026, with resolution determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either confident no extreme heat will occur or have not yet engaged meaningfully with this contract ahead of the settlement window closing at midday UTC on that date.

New York City's August climate patterns show a median high of 27°C (81°F) with typical daily peaks between 26–29°C. Historical August extremes at LaGuardia have reached 37°C (99°F) in 1949 and 38°C (100°F) in 1933, though readings above 35°C occur roughly once per decade in the modern record. The current 0% reading diverges sharply from the baseline probability that any given August day in New York will exceed 32°C, which historical data suggests occurs in approximately 20–30% of cases. This disconnect indicates either minimal liquidity or systematic underpricing of ordinary summer heat outcomes.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts beginning in late July 2026, particularly any high-pressure systems or heat dome developments tracking toward the Northeast. The Atlantic hurricane season peaks in August and September, potentially introducing moisture that could suppress afternoon temperatures, whilst any blocking ridge over the eastern seaboard would elevate heat risk substantially. Weather Underground's specific measurement protocols at LaGuardia—particularly sensor placement and observation timing—will determine final settlement, making the distinction between Daily Observations and Day High & Low sections material to outcome classification.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.