Highest temperature in Munich on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport is currently experiencing sunny conditions with a high of 28°C on 12 July 2026, yet the prediction market for any temperature outcome remains priced at 0% probability for a "YES" resolution. This apparent contradiction stems from the market’s specific structure, which resolves only if the recorded high falls within a defined temperature range that the crowd deems impossible for this date. The current pricing suggests traders believe the official Wunderground record will land outside the contract’s trigger bracket, despite the live 28°C reading.

Historical data for Munich in July shows daily highs typically range between 23°C and 30°C, rarely exceeding 32°C even during heatwaves [1][3]. In past years, 12 July has recorded highs of 29°C and 27°C, placing it firmly within the common summer band rather than an extreme outlier [5]. The 0% implied probability likely reflects a mismatch between the market’s specific range and the statistically probable 28–29°C outcome, rather than a belief that no heat will occur.

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily summary for Munich Airport (EDDM) once the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, as this is the sole resolution source [10]. No further announcements or schedules will alter the outcome, as the event is purely meteorological and dependent on the final recorded maximum. The divergence between live forecasts showing 28°C and the market’s 0% pricing highlights a potential arbitrage opportunity if the contract’s range includes 28°C, or confirms a structural misalignment if it excludes the day’s likely peak [2][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.