Highest temperature in Munich on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, Munich Airport's weather station will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius, with the market resolving to whichever range bracket contains that figure. The settlement mechanism relies explicitly on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces discrepancies of 0.5–1.0°C when automated station readings differ from manually adjusted highs. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are either awaiting range options to be populated or treating this as a placeholder contract pending fuller specification.

Munich's August climatology provides the baseline for calibration. The city's long-term August average high sits near 24°C, though readings regularly exceed 28°C during warm spells and occasionally breach 30°C in heatwave conditions. The 2003 European heatwave saw Munich reach 37.5°C in August; more recently, August 2022 produced multiple days above 30°C across Bavaria. A 0% crowd probability at this stage suggests the market lacks sufficient trader participation to establish meaningful odds, rather than reflecting genuine consensus that any particular range is impossible.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European summer weather patterns from June 2026 onwards, particularly Atlantic blocking patterns and North African heat advection forecasts that typically drive August extremes across Central Europe. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) publishes seasonal outlooks in May that often signal whether the coming summer leans toward above or below-normal temperatures. Current cross-platform comparison shows minimal liquidity, making early positioning potentially advantageous once range brackets are finalised and competing platforms establish divergent odds.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.