Highest temperature in Munich on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich’s 10 August heat is usually modest by European summer standards, but the upside tail is real: long-run August data put average highs around 24–25°C, while the warmest August reading on record in the city is 37.0°C, and the 10 August record high is 35.9°C[1][17]. That matters for this contract because the settlement is based on the Munich Airport Station’s highest temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, not the headline day-high summary, so a brief afternoon spike is what counts most[3]. With the market at just 1% YES, the crowd is effectively pricing in the absence of a near-record hot day, far below what the historical ceiling would justify in an unusually warm setup[1][17].

Comparable August cases show how quickly Munich can swing from seasonal to extreme: the city has reached 35.9°C on 10 August before, and broader August records show multiple 30°C-plus outcomes even though typical highs sit in the mid-20s[1][4][10]. That makes a 1% price look conservative relative to climatology, but not irrational if current forecasts point to a normal, unsettled Bavarian summer pattern rather than a sustained heatwave. The key comparison is not the month’s average, but whether the station can print a single observation in the top historical bands before the settlement window closes[1][3].

For traders, the main catalyst is the intraday forecast and any late-morning warmth before 12:00 UTC, because the contract settles on the highest recorded temperature in that window, not the eventual afternoon peak[3]. Munich Airport observations can diverge from city-centre forecasts, especially with cloud cover, showers or an early frontal passage trimming the maximum before the official cut-off. The practical watchlist is the hourly forecast trend into mid-morning, any last-minute model shifts, and whether Weather Underground’s station feed shows a sharp early climb or a flat profile; those are more relevant than generic August averages or the day’s eventual summary high[2][3][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.