Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event in question is the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sits at 0%, yet Polymarket data shows a 35% chance assigned to 32°C and 30% to 31°C, creating a stark divergence between the implied zero and the trader consensus clustering tightly around 31–32°C[1]. This discrepancy suggests the market may be mispricing the modest diurnal heating potential, as short-range forecasts indicate limited cloud cover breaks that could push temperatures higher[1].

Historical patterns frame this probability: long-term averages for Manila in July show daytime highs typically reaching 31°C with very high heat and humidity, falling to 24°C at night[2]. The wet season, spanning June to October, brings heavy rainfall and frequent showers, with July being the peak month for precipitation, averaging 389mm[3]. While March and April are the hottest months, July still sees temperatures averaging 26–31°C, with 1.6 days potentially affected by tropical storms[2][3]. Recent data from 1 July 2026 shows Port Area hitting 36.0°C, though this is outside the airport station[9].

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s extended weather outlook, which forecasts a 60% chance of rain for 1 July with a high of 30°C, rising to 32°C by 3 July[4]. Key catalysts include shifts in steering flow and model spread, which could break cloud cover and elevate temperatures beyond the 31–32°C range[1]. Any announcement of reduced rainfall or increased sunshine hours would be a critical signal, as the current 21 rainy days in July suggest persistent cloud cover[2]. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, requiring real-time tracking of Wunderground’s hourly data for the airport station[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.