Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles International Airport sat on the cooler side of normal on 14 August, with the National Weather Service calling for coastal clouds, inland sunshine and highs about 4-10 degrees below normal across the region. That makes a mid-80s outcome at LAX plausible, but the weather setup was not pointing to the kind of extreme heat that would push the top bracket decisively higher. The market’s 0% YES implies traders see the contract as effectively dead, yet the underlying weather profile still allows room for a modestly warm afternoon rather than a low-end reading.

For context, LAX’s late-summer normal maximum for 14 August is 77°F, while the record stands at 92°F. Forecast products on the day clustered around the low 80s, with one showing 82°F and another around 80°F, which is consistent with a marine-layer-controlled coastal pattern rather than a heat event. That sits neatly between the normal and the record, so comparable cases usually hinge on whether the airport briefly mixes out enough to reach the mid-80s. In this kind of contract, prediction-market pricing often moves in narrow bands unless there is a clear heat warning or offshore flow, and the present 0% figure suggests no meaningful divergence from the broader view.

The main catalyst is the actual daily observations at LAX, because this market settles from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than the summary high-low display. Traders should watch for the afternoon peak, any late-day marine-layer clearing, and whether the airport observation series records a brief spike above the forecast highs. With no watches or advisories in place and forecasts calling for continued onshore flow, the dependency is straightforward: the contract will be decided by a single observed maximum, not by the broader Los Angeles basin weather.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.