Highest temperature in London on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

London’s highest temperature on 10 August 2026 is the real-world event behind this contract, and the market is currently pricing the top outcome at **0% YES**. That makes the Polymarket contract look markedly more bearish than the live weather tape: the platform display shows **26°C and 27°C tied at 43% each**, which implies the crowd is clustering around a mild-to-warm afternoon rather than a breakout heat spike.[1]

History suggests August 10 can support both ordinary summer highs and extreme outliers, depending on synoptic set-up. London’s long-run August record is well above this market’s likely range, with **40.2°C** observed at Heathrow and St James’s Park in July 2022, while the UK’s famous 10 August benchmark remains **38.5°C** from Brogdale in 2003; London itself reached **38.1°C at Kew Gardens** and **37.9°C at Heathrow** on that same date.[8][10][18] Against that backdrop, a 26–27°C consensus is not especially aggressive, but it does leave room for a single hotter reading to swing the contract if convection clears late or the airport station runs a degree higher than nearby sites.[1][6]

For traders, the main catalysts are the intraday forecast updates, cloud cover, and whether London City Airport is one of the locations that briefly outperforms the broader city. The market rules make the **Weather Underground Daily Observations** table decisive, so the settlement outcome depends on the highest recorded reading there, not the headline day-high summary.[1] Recent commercial weather guidance has also pointed to London highs in the upper 20s Celsius on 10 August, which sits close to the current crowd view and helps explain why the contract has not yet priced a material probability in the higher buckets.[16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.