Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature reading at Kuala Lumpur International Airport on 19 July 2026, measured in Celsius and resolved via Weather Underground's historical data for that specific station. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either heavily concentrated in a particular temperature band or the market has attracted minimal liquidity across all ranges.

Kuala Lumpur's July climate is remarkably consistent. The airport station typically records daily highs between 32–34°C during the monsoon season, with extreme readings above 35°C occurring in fewer than 10% of July days across the past two decades. Historical data from the Malaysian Meteorological Department shows that temperatures exceeding 36°C at this location are rare events, usually tied to extended dry spells or urban heat island effects. The absence of any YES probability suggests the market may be anchored to a narrow range, possibly reflecting trader consensus around the 33–34°C band where most July days cluster.

Traders should monitor the Intra-Asian Weather Patterns bulletin and any El Niño or monsoon intensity forecasts released in early July 2026, as these drive regional temperature anomalies. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 19 July, creating a hard deadline; any weather disruptions or station maintenance affecting data availability would be critical to track. Cross-platform comparison with sportsbooks offering weather derivatives or long-range forecasts from the UK Met Office or NOAA could reveal whether the 0% probability reflects genuine consensus or simply thin order books in this particular contract.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.