Highest temperature in Houston on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s **highest temperature at William P. Hobby Airport today** will be resolved against the day’s maximum reading on Wunderground, and the market is currently pricing **0% YES**, implying no expectation that the observed high will land in the listed qualifying band. That looks aggressive on the face of it, because Houston’s July climate routinely reaches the mid-90s Fahrenheit, with monthly averages around **77°F to 96°F** and frequent rain that can cap daytime heating when cloud cover or storms develop.[2]

For context, a recent Houston past-weather entry showed a **95°F** high alongside light winds, which is a useful reminder that single-day outcomes can sit close to the market’s upper ranges even outside heatwave conditions.[1] Against that backdrop, a zero-implied probability suggests the crowd is either expecting a cooler-than-normal outcome for the day or thinks the contract’s settlement band is too high relative to the likely maximum. No sportsbook-style line was available in the provided material, so there is no firm cross-market comparison point beyond the prediction market price itself.

The main catalysts are local weather evolution and anything that changes the morning forecast: cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, afternoon shower chances, and whether any weak front or convective system limits peak heating before the closing hours of the settlement window. The key dependency is the official high at Hobby Airport as recorded on Wunderground, so traders will watch the station’s live progression rather than Houston-wide averages, which can differ materially from the airport reading.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.