Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 14 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves based on the "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once the date has passed and data finalised. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory releases its official record.

Hong Kong's July temperatures are among the year's most consistent. Historical data from the Observatory shows daily maxima in mid-July typically range between 32–34°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 35°C or falling below 31°C. The 0% crowd-implied probability across platforms suggests traders are either awaiting range options to be specified or treating this as a placeholder market pending clarification of which temperature bands will be offered at settlement. Without published resolution brackets, meaningful probability assessment remains premature; comparable weather markets on Kalshi and Polymarket typically see July Hong Kong temperatures priced across 1–2°C bands with relatively tight clustering around historical medians.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily weather data on a standard schedule, with historical records accessible through its Climate Information Services portal. Traders should monitor the Observatory's official releases in early-to-mid July 2026 for any unusual weather patterns—tropical cyclones or heat waves—that could shift temperatures materially outside the typical 32–34°C range. Until specific temperature brackets are confirmed in the market's resolution criteria, cross-platform comparison remains limited; current zero probability likely reflects incomplete market specification rather than consensus forecasting.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.