Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, Hong Kong will experience its peak summer heat as the Hong Kong Observatory records the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. The market tracks whether this peak falls within a specific temperature range, with the current crowd-implied probability for the “YES” outcome sitting at 0%, suggesting traders view that range as highly unlikely.

Historical data frames this probability: July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with an average high of 89°F (31.7°C) and recorded peaks reaching 35.7°C in past years[2]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs between 86°F and 93°F (30–34°C), with numerical consensus pointing to a near 33–34°C peak on 10 July[1][3]. This aligns with the 0% implied probability, as the targeted range likely excludes these expected values.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Daily Extract” for finalised data, as the market cannot resolve until publication[5]. A key catalyst is the release of the “Absolute Daily Max” figure, expected shortly after midnight on 11 July. Recent climate reports confirm Hong Kong’s warming trend, with 2025 marking the city’s sixth-hottest year and all months warmer than usual[7]. No divergence exists between sportsbook lines and prediction-market odds, as both reflect the same 33–34°C consensus. Analysts agree the targeted range is improbable given current forecasts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.