Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 16 August 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. This single-day weather observation will settle the market once the Observatory publishes its daily extract data, which typically becomes available within days of the observation date.

August temperatures in Hong Kong are historically consistent, with daily maxima clustering between 31°C and 34°C during the summer monsoon season. The Observatory's records from recent Augusts show that extreme outliers above 36°C occur rarely—roughly once per decade—whilst readings below 30°C are virtually absent. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution data or treating this as a placeholder market pending clarification of the specific temperature bands available for settlement. Cross-platform comparison reveals minimal trading activity on equivalent contracts, indicating limited consensus formation at this stage.

The settlement hinges entirely on the Observatory's official publication schedule and data accuracy. Tropical cyclones or unusual atmospheric patterns in early August 2026 could influence the final reading, though such events would be visible weeks in advance through meteorological forecasting. Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlooks and any tropical cyclone warnings issued in the fortnight preceding 16 August. The market cannot resolve until the "Absolute Daily Max" figure appears in the published daily extract, creating a hard dependency on administrative data release rather than real-time measurement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.