Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 15 August is set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum, and the market will not settle until that figure appears in the daily extract for the date. The consensus picture is modest rather than extreme: the Observatory’s short-range forecast pointed to mainly cloudy weather, a few showers and thunderstorms at first, with a daytime range of 27–32°C, while other public forecasts were clustered close by at around 31–34°C for the urban high.[1][2][3]

That leaves the 0% YES price notably detached from the published weather outlook. Similar August setups in Hong Kong often finish in the low 30s unless there is a strong subsidence-driven hot spell, but the current official forecast is capped well below the 35°C-plus levels that would meaningfully shift the upper temperature buckets.[1][2] The key catalysts are the Observatory’s next bulletins, any change in the rain-and-thunderstorm wording, and whether local heating over central districts or the New Territories pushes the peak above the main forecast band before the noon settlement window closes.[1][2][3]

[1] Hong Kong Observatory, 9-day Weather Forecast and Current Weather, updated 15 Aug 2026. [2] RTHK weather report, updated 15 Aug 2026. [3] BBC Weather and Time and Date Hong Kong forecasts for 15 Aug 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.