Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the real-world event determining this contract is the peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, a metric that historically almost never dips below 30°C in mid-summer. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for a lower temperature range is starkly divergent from the physical reality of Guangzhou’s climate, where July daily highs average 33°C and routinely climb to 39°C[2][4]. This prediction-market line suggests a near-zero chance of a cold spell, which aligns with the historical record that daily highs rarely fall below 30°C (85°F) during this period[1]. Unlike sportsbooks that might offer odds on a specific threshold, this market’s 0% implied probability reflects a consensus that a temperature below the lowest bracket is virtually impossible, mirroring the record-breaking heatwave China experienced in July 2023, which saw the highest average temperature since 1961[5].

Traders should monitor the immediate weather forecast for the Baiyun Airport station, specifically any sudden shifts in monsoon patterns or thunderstorm activity that could temporarily suppress peak temperatures[3]. While no specific government announcements are scheduled for this date, the broader trend of Guangzhou experiencing its longest summer since 1961 suggests a high probability of sustained heat rather than a cooling anomaly[7]. The resolution source, Wunderground, will capture the highest temperature for all times on the day, meaning even a brief, intense heat spike will determine the outcome[8]. Given the recent data showing July as the hottest month with averages around 33°C, the catalyst for any divergence would be an unprecedented, unforecasted cold front, which current meteorological models do not support for this region in mid-July[2]. The 0% probability remains a rational reflection of these entrenched climatic dependencies rather than a speculative error.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.