Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the actual peak temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field on 28 June 2026, a date historically prone to extreme heat in North Texas. Current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome sits at 0%, suggesting the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being traded, despite seasonal norms.

Historically, 28 June in Dallas has seen temperatures reach 110°F, as recorded in 1980, the all-time high for that date [2]. Recent forecasts for June 2026 at Love Field indicate daily highs between 96°F and 100°F, with overnight lows of 77°F to 83°F [4]. This aligns with the broader pattern of variable high temperatures through the week, ranging from 75°F to 89°F, and some rain chances of 20% or higher on at least three days [1]. The 0% implied probability likely reflects a mismatch between the market’s range and these realistic seasonal expectations.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for the highest temperature recorded at any time on 28 June [9]. The National Weather Service currently reports clear skies and temperatures around 84°F at 12:20 am on 28 June, with a forecasted high of 97°F for the day [3][1]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover, precipitation, or wind patterns could alter the peak temperature, making live weather data critical as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 June 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.