Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Dallas Love Field Station will record its highest temperature on 13 July 2026, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground. The market presents temperature ranges in Fahrenheit, and traders are tasked with predicting which bracket will contain that day's peak reading. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity driving price discovery toward edge cases.

Dallas's July climate offers substantial historical precedent. The city's average high in mid-July sits around 95°F, with typical daily maxima ranging between 92–98°F. Heat records for the period show occasional spikes above 100°F, though such extremes occur in roughly 5–10% of July days across a multi-decade sample. The 0% probability reading diverges sharply from baseline climatological expectations, indicating either that traders have priced in an unusually cool weather pattern or that the market lacks sufficient participation to reflect genuine uncertainty around temperature ranges.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly National Weather Service outlooks and any anomalous atmospheric patterns developing in the preceding weeks. La Niña or El Niño conditions, if active, could shift Texas summer temperatures measurably. The settlement window closes at midday on 13 July, meaning real-time weather updates from morning hours will determine final resolution. Cross-platform comparison with sportsbook weather derivatives, where available, may reveal whether the 0% reading reflects genuine consensus or simply thin order books on this specific contract.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.