Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas’s highest temperature on 9 August 2026 is likely to be read from the Weather Underground daily observations at Dallas Love Field, not from the broader day-high summary, so the market is effectively tied to the airport’s observed peak rather than the citywide marketing number. That distinction matters because the available live market signals are already stretched to the hot end: Polymarket shows 100% assigned to 98–99°F, while the nearby August forecast profile from AccuWeather points to 100°F for the date and 101°F for adjacent days, and timeanddate’s historical page showed Dallas around 100°F on the day itself.[3][2][6]

Historically, Dallas in August has a strong bias towards near-triple-digit heat, which makes the current 0% yes reading look more like a pricing artefact than a true cold-weather expectation. The National Weather Service’s climate normals put the normal maximum for 9 August at 97°F, with a record maximum of 108°F, and weather reference pages for Dallas in August commonly cluster around the mid-to-high 90s or about 100°F.[4][11][8] In that context, a contract keyed to a specific station and a specific observation table usually resolves close to the seasonal norm unless there is an unusual cool front or an observation gap.

For traders, the main catalysts are not speeches or releases but the observation cadence itself: the final result depends on whether Love Field’s latest daily observation for the date is revised before the first datapoint for the following day is published, which Polymarket says can still change the resolved value during that window.[3] The other dependency is simple timing: once post-midnight data for 10 August appears, late edits stop mattering, so the last few station readings and any correction to the daily observations table are the only moving parts left.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.