Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing faces its peak summer heatwave window as traders assess the likelihood of record highs at the Jiangbei International Airport Station on 17 July 2026. The market currently implies a 0% chance of the event occurring, suggesting the crowd expects temperatures to stay well below the threshold required for a “YES” resolution, despite the city’s notorious reputation for extreme July temperatures.

Historically, Chongqing regularly exceeds 40°C in mid-July, with the Jiangbei station recording 42.2°C on 24 July 2022 and 41.8°C on 15 July 2017, according to Wunderground’s historical archive [1]. These comparable cases indicate that a 0% implied probability is unusually low for this period, creating a notable divergence from typical sportsbook-style weather lines that often assign 15–25% odds to extreme-heat outcomes in the region during this window.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s 72-hour forecast issued today, which typically updates at 18:00 UTC and includes high-temperature warnings for Sichuan and Chongqing provinces [2]. A sudden shift in the forecast—such as an upgrade to a red alert for extreme heat—could rapidly alter implied probabilities, especially if it aligns with real-time data from Wunderground’s hourly station feed. The settlement depends entirely on the single highest reading recorded at ZUCK, making short-term volatility in forecast models a key catalyst.

[1] https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK [2] China Meteorological Administration, “72-hour weather forecast for Sichuan and Chongqing,” 16 July 2026, 18:00 UTC update.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.