Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 11 August 2026 will determine this market's settlement, with resolution tied specifically to the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across prediction platforms, suggesting traders assess the specified temperature range as either extremely unlikely or that the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

Chongqing's August climate presents a useful historical baseline. The city experiences peak summer heat in early August, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–36°C during this period. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows that extreme temperatures above 40°C occur sporadically but remain within the realm of possibility during heat waves, whilst readings below 28°C would constitute an unusual cool spell for this season. The 0% probability reading suggests either the market has not yet attracted substantive trading volume or participants are pricing in conditions well outside typical August patterns for the region.

Traders monitoring this contract should track weather forecasts released in late July and early August 2026, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and international models. Atmospheric pressure systems and potential heat domes across East Asia in the weeks preceding 11 August will signal whether extreme heat is plausible. The resolution methodology's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than alternative Chinese meteorological sources—introduces a dependency worth noting, as data discrepancies between international and domestic weather services occasionally occur.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.