Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 10 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, requiring resolution based on the official station record.

Chongqing's August climate presents a consistent baseline for comparison. Historical data shows the city regularly experiences daily highs between 32–38°C during summer months, with extreme readings occasionally exceeding 40°C during heat waves. The 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature threshold as the market's upper bound. Without visibility on the exact range brackets offered, this near-zero probability typically indicates either an exceptionally high temperature ceiling or a technical factor affecting market participation. Comparable weather markets on Kalshi and Polymarket show wider participation when temperature ranges align with historical norms; divergence here warrants scrutiny of the specific bins available.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any heat-wave advisories affecting the Sichuan Basin region where Chongqing sits. The East Asian summer monsoon pattern and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific could materially shift temperature outcomes. Weather Underground's station data feeds directly into resolution, so any planned maintenance at Jiangbei Airport or sensor recalibration should be tracked. Cross-referencing with alternative sources—China's National Climate Centre or local Chongqing meteorological bureaux—may reveal consensus divergence if prediction markets are mispricing tail-risk scenarios.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.