Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport’s recorded high for 31 July will be the settlement driver, and the current 0% YES price on the contract implies the market is effectively assigning no weight to a qualifying temperature band landing anywhere in the listed outcome range. By contrast, live weather forecasts are materially warmer: several services show midday or afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with Ventusky peaking at 37°C around 14:00 and the Met Office at 35°C, while Hong Kong’s official city bulletin has Chengdu at 38°C for 31 July[14][10][9]. That is a clear gap between prediction-market pricing and the broader weather outlook, although none of those forecasts are airport-station readings and all are subject to local variation.

Historically, late-July Chengdu is a hot, humid period rather than a cool outlier, which makes the zero-implied probability look detached from seasonal norms. Multiple July climatology pages and short-range forecasts cluster around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with some platforms putting 31 July at roughly 33°C to 36°C and humidity staying elevated[3][4][15]. For traders comparing venues, that means the live sportsbook-style weather lines and analyst consensus point to a much higher daytime ceiling than the market’s price suggests; the main reason for caution is that airport observations can undercut citywide forecasts if rain or cloud cover arrives on station, and the contract resolves on the single highest temperature recorded during the day, not the daily average or “feels like” value[16][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.