Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s highest temperature on 23 July will be set by the reading at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, and the current market is pricing **38°C** as the front-runner at **44%**, with **39°C** next at **22%**.[1] The crowd-implied line therefore clusters around the upper-30s, which is materially warmer than the broader July profile usually associated with Chengdu, where typical highs are around **31°C** and recent forecast summaries point to roughly **32°C** conditions.[2]

That gap matters because temperature-maximum contracts usually hinge on whether an afternoon peak breaks through the day’s warmest forecast band by one or two degrees, rather than on the daily mean. In cross-platform terms, the current signal is that prediction-market traders are assigning a meaningful chance to a hot-but-not-extreme outcome, while the weather baseline remains closer to low-30s Celsius.[1][2] For comparison, there is no sportsbook line in the provided data, so the main observable divergence here is between the market’s concentrated 38–39°C distribution and the more moderate external weather framing.[2]

The key catalysts are the midday and afternoon evolution of cloud cover, rainfall, and any convective build-up over Sichuan, because those factors can cap the maximum quickly or allow a short-lived spike at the airport station. Traders should also watch any updated high-temperature forecasts and whether local conditions remain consistent with the current 32°C-style guidance, since small revisions can shift the probability mass across adjacent bins in a settlement that depends on the single highest daily reading.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.