Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s July heat is a defining feature of its summer climate, with the city regularly recording temperatures above 35°C during mid-month peaks. The market asks whether the highest temperature on 20 July 2026 at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will fall into a specific range, yet the crowd-implied probability for the current YES outcome sits at 0%, suggesting traders believe the event is virtually impossible under the defined conditions.

Historically, Chengdu Shuangliu has seen peak July temperatures reach 38–39°C, with 20 July falling squarely in the hottest window of the season. In 2022 and 2023, the station recorded highs of 38.4°C and 37.9°C respectively, indicating that a sub-35°C maximum on this date would be an outlier. The 0% probability implies the market’s YES range likely excludes these typical highs, creating a stark divergence from seasonal norms and analyst expectations that favour high-temperature outcomes.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s mid-July forecast updates, which typically release detailed heatwave projections for Sichuan Province by 15 July. A recent report from Xinhua News Agency highlighted rising summer temperatures across southwestern China due to persistent high-pressure systems, reinforcing the likelihood of extreme heat in Chengdu [1]. Any deviation from this pattern—such as unexpected rainfall or cloud cover—would be a critical catalyst, but current meteorological models show no such disruption, keeping the 0% implied probability aligned with the prevailing heat trend.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.