Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s **9 August** high is the relevant driver for this contract, and the live market is already pricing an almost certain miss at **0% YES**, which is well below the forecast tone from weather sites calling for a hot, unsettled day around **31–33°C** with showers or thunderstorm risk.[2][5][8][9] That gap matters because this market resolves to the **highest temperature in the Weather Underground Daily Observations table** for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, not the summary “Day High & Low” figure, so traders should focus on the observed peak rather than headline forecast output.

On comparable August days, Chengdu often sits in the low 30s Celsius, with long-run guides putting early-August highs near **30–31°C** and noting that extremes can reach the high 30s in summer.[4][12][19][20] Recent forecast pages cluster around a **32–34°C** ceiling, while the UK Met Office and Hong Kong Observatory both show a **33°C** maximum for Chengdu and AccuWeather’s monthly view points to a **93°F** day high, which is broadly consistent with that range.[1][8][9][13] Against that backdrop, the crowd’s **0% YES** looks materially lower than the implied temperature outlook; the main explanation is likely the contract’s narrow resolution band and the fact that many models are forecasting a high that still lands outside the target range.

The key catalysts are the hourly observations at Chengdu Shuangliu Airport, especially any late-afternoon spike before the observation window closes, because convective showers can cap daytime warming or produce brief pre-rain heating.[2][3][5] There is no sportsbook consensus in the results provided, so the comparison point is mainly between the prediction market, which is effectively discounting the contract, and the public weather consensus, which is notably warmer. Traders should also watch for any updated local thunderstorm alerts or revised hourly forecasts, since several sources already flag rain or storm risk for the day.[2][5][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.