Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport station is heading into 17 August with forecasts clustered around the high 20s Celsius, but the market is split between a hot-day print and a more tempered outcome. Public forecasts in the search results range from 26°C on weather.com.cn to 27°C on Polymarket’s own summary, with other models showing 28°C or a daytime high near 33°C; that spread helps explain why the contract’s crowd-implied 0% YES looks disconnected from the weather itself and more like a liquidity gap than a consensus view.[10][13][4]

For context, late-summer Chengdu highs usually sit in the low 30s Celsius at the airport, but August averages and recent model runs both point to cloud, humidity and showers limiting upside rather than extreme heat.[12][11] AccuWeather’s 8/17 outlook says a passing morning shower, otherwise cloudy and not as warm, with a forecast high of 78°F, while WeatherSpark’s recent airport observations show mid-80s Fahrenheit conditions on 16 August, so the key question is whether daytime heating reaches the 27°C to 28°C band or stalls lower before the settlement window closes.[11][5]

The main catalyst is the evolution of overnight rain and morning convection over Sichuan: a wetter setup favours a lower daily maximum, while any clearing before midday would raise the chance of a higher top reading. Traders should watch the airport-specific forecast updates and the first post-midnight observations on 17 August, because the market resolves off the highest value in the Daily Observations table, not the summary high/low line, so a brief spike matters more than the day’s headline weather.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.