Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will determine the settlement outcome for this market. The resolution mechanism specifies the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground as the primary source, with explicit precedence over the Day High & Low summary section—a distinction that matters when discrepancies arise between automated station readings and manually adjusted figures. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date.

Chengdu's August climate presents a consistent baseline for comparison. Historical data shows mid-August temperatures in the city typically peak between 32–36°C, with occasional extremes reaching 37–38°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd-implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are pricing in either a specific temperature threshold that falls outside historical norms or are treating this as a low-conviction market with sparse trading activity. Cross-platform divergence is notable: traditional weather forecasting services and sportsbooks rarely publish explicit odds on granular temperature outcomes, leaving prediction markets as the primary price discovery mechanism. This absence of competing lines means the current probability reflects minimal arbitrage pressure.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for regional temperature ranges. Atmospheric patterns affecting the Sichuan Basin—including monsoon positioning and high-pressure system placement—will drive actual outcomes. The specific resolution source dependency on Wundergro's Weather Underground data means station calibration and any maintenance windows at Chengdu Shuangliu could affect recorded values, though such disruptions are rare.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.