Highest temperature in Busan on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s highest temperature on 6 August is the event being priced, with settlement tied to the day’s maximum reading at Gimhae Intl Airport Station on Wunderground rather than a citywide average or a nearby headline forecast. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for **YES** implies the market is effectively discounting the targeted outcome range, while the public forecast picture still points to a hot summer afternoon in the low 30s Celsius, with Busan’s August highs typically around 30–31°C and daily peaks often near 86–87°F. [1][10][16]

For context, Busan has previously produced extreme heat well above normal August levels: the city reached 38.8°C during a record-breaking spell cited by Yonhap and other outlets, which is useful as a reminder that coastal location does not rule out sharp spikes when regional heat builds. That said, climatology is a poor guide for a single intraday airport reading, and a 0% crowd price sits well below the kind of temperature bands usually seen in summer forecasts, suggesting either a mispriced contract or a market expecting the resolution range to be narrower than the broader city forecast implies. [4][14][16]

Traders should watch the evolution of the official Busan forecast, especially any short-term updates from weather services and Korean meteorological reporting that could shift expectations for cloud cover, sea breeze, or rain around peak heating time. A recent Korean media forecast put Busan’s Thursday high at around 33°C, while AccuWeather’s monthly outlook showed highs mostly in the high-20s to high-30s Fahrenheit? no, in the high-20s to low-30s Celsius equivalent, but Wunderground’s station-specific reading at the airport is the only figure that matters for settlement, so late-morning cloud break-up or afternoon precipitation could still matter more than the broader day-level outlook. [12][1][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.