Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s highest temperature on 10 August is being priced as a relatively muted outcome, with the contract’s crowd-implied lead sitting at 0% YES here even though the live venue-level Polymarket screen shows 30°C as the front-runner at 43%, followed by 31°C at 33%. That gap is meaningful: the market is effectively anchored around the low 30s Celsius, which is consistent with the broader August climatology for Busan, where average highs cluster in the high 20s to around 30°C and monthly norms are hot, humid and often unstable.[4][8][11][13]

For context, historical climate references put Busan’s August daily highs around 29–30°C on average, with occasional spikes into the mid-30s Celsius, so a resolution in the 30–31°C range is far from unusual even when thunderstorm risk is present.[6][8][20] The current probability profile therefore reads less like a call on an extreme heat event and more like a question of whether cloud cover and marine influence keep the day near seasonal norms, or whether warming after morning rain pushes the daily maximum into the low 30s.[10][17]

Traders should watch the overnight and early-morning forecast updates for Busan, especially any changes in thunderstorm timing, cloud break-up and wind direction, because those factors most directly affect the day’s eventual high.[10][17] AccuWeather’s latest 10-day view points to morning thunderstorms followed by cloud and brightening, while Timeanddate shows an 83/77°F profile with early thunderstorms, both of which support a ceiling near the low 30s Celsius rather than a sustained surge.[10][17] The resolution itself depends on the Wunderground daily observations for Gimhae Intl Airport Station, not the summary high/low panel, so the intraday station record is the relevant reference if forecasts and reported highs diverge.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.