Highest temperature in Beijing on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing is set to experience its peak summer heat on 28 June 2026, with the Beijing Capital International Airport Station serving as the official measurement point for the highest daily temperature. Historical data indicates that late June in the city typically sees highs ranging from the upper 20s to the low 40s Celsius, with around ten days annually exceeding 35°C [4]. A record-breaking 41.1°C was logged in June 2023, marking the city’s second-highest temperature ever and confirming that extreme heatwaves are a recurring feature of the season [1]. Current weather averages for June show daily highs increasing from 84°F to 87°F, rarely falling below 73°F or exceeding 96°F [3].

Despite this historical volatility, the prediction market currently assigns a 0% probability to temperatures falling below 27°C, while the frontrunner outcome is 34°C at 100% implied probability [2]. This stark divergence from sportsbook lines, which often treat 33°C as a lower-end threshold for typical summer conditions, suggests a unique market consensus on an intense heatwave event [5]. Traders should monitor the National Meteorological Centre’s daily heatwave advisories and the timing of the incoming monsoon front, as delays in rainfall could push temperatures toward the upper historical limits. Recent reports from Reuters highlight that heatwaves returning to northern China have already driven temperatures past 41°C in previous years, reinforcing the risk of extreme readings [1]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 June 2026, locking in the final recorded high for the day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.