Highest temperature in Beijing on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 15 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the highest reading captured before noon will determine the outcome. Current crowd pricing implies near-zero probability across prediction markets, suggesting traders expect temperatures to fall outside whichever range this contract covers—though the specific threshold is not stated in available documentation.

August represents Beijing's peak summer season, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 29°C and 33°C during mid-month. The city's 30-year average for 15 August sits around 30.5°C, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 36°C or falling below 25°C. The 0% implied probability across platforms suggests either an unusually narrow resolution band or a systematic underpricing of tail-risk scenarios. Comparable weather contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket show modest divergence in how they price similar Beijing summer dates, with sportsbooks offering no direct equivalent for this specific metric.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. Any significant heat wave warnings or unusual atmospheric patterns affecting northern China would shift expectations materially. The reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures creates a technical dependency worth tracking, as station-level data occasionally diverges from published daily highs during system updates or sensor recalibration.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.