Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's peak temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement occurring at midday UTC. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing this contract as either a technical outlier or reflecting genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will ultimately settle.

August in Beijing typically sees daily highs between 26°C and 32°C, though readings above 35°C occur in roughly one year per decade during extreme heat events. Historical data from the past fifteen years shows that extreme heat waves—those pushing temperatures above 38°C—coincide with high-pressure systems stalling over northern China for extended periods. The 2022 summer heatwave saw Beijing record 40.3°C on 16 June, establishing recent precedent for exceptional outliers. Current crowd pricing at zero probability for any specific temperature band suggests either the market structure has created a technical gap in coverage or traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital.

China's meteorological authority typically issues extended-range forecasts by late July, with updates through early August refining expectations for mid-month conditions. The East Asian summer monsoon pattern, currently tracked by the China Meteorological Administration, will be the primary driver of whether August 11 falls within normal seasonal range or experiences anomalous heat. Traders should monitor official CMA seasonal outlooks and any significant shifts in the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system, which directly influences whether moisture-laden air or dry continental air dominates Beijing's weather on that date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.