Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will determine which range this market resolves to. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's peak temperature as measured by Wunderground's historical weather data for that station. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options or treating this as a placeholder contract pending clarification on specific temperature brackets.

Atlanta's July climate presents a stable baseline for comparison. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that mid-July highs in Atlanta typically range between 88–92°F, with extreme heat days occasionally reaching 95°F or above. The city's record high for July stands at 100°F, set in 1952, though readings above 98°F remain rare in modern records. Summer 2025 patterns and any emerging La Niña or El Niño signals will inform whether 2026 tracks toward typical or anomalous heat, though seasonal forecasts remain unreliable beyond six months.

Traders should monitor National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration seasonal outlooks released in early 2026 and any Atlantic hurricane activity that might suppress peak temperatures through cloud cover. The National Weather Service Atlanta office typically issues extended forecasts by early July. Divergence between sportsbook weather derivatives (if available) and prediction-market odds would signal whether professional meteorological models are pricing in unusual conditions for that specific date. Current zero probability likely reflects missing range specifications rather than genuine market consensus.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.