Highest temperature in Ankara on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded at Esenboğa International Airport in Ankara on 2 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Long-term averages for Ankara in July indicate daytime maximums of 29°C, with typical highs reaching 27°C under low heat and humidity conditions [1]. Historical data shows four days of rain on average in the month, but the prevailing pattern is sunny with twelve hours of sunshine daily [1]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for a specific high-temperature range is 0% YES, the market appears to be pricing in a near-certain outcome outside that bracket, likely reflecting the consensus that temperatures will align closely with the seasonal norm rather than deviating into extreme outliers.

Traders should monitor immediate weather forecasts and any sudden shifts in atmospheric pressure, as these act as primary catalysts for temperature divergence. The BBC forecast for Ankara currently notes sunny conditions with light winds and rising pressure, suggesting stable weather patterns that support typical July highs [2]. While no specific announcements are pending, the dependency on real-time Wunderground data means that any unexpected cloud cover or thundery showers could alter the settlement outcome [2]. Analysts generally align with the long-term average of 27–29°C, creating a meaningful divergence from the 0% implied probability if the market is mispricing the likelihood of a standard high-temperature day versus an extreme anomaly. Cross-platform odds comparisons reveal that sportsbook lines for similar weather contracts often favour the median range, whereas this prediction market’s zero probability suggests a unique, perhaps overly confident, consensus on the settlement range.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Ankara on July 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.