Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol’s highest temperature on 31 July will be set by a single day’s weather, so the relevant question is whether conditions in north-western Netherlands push the afternoon maximum into an unusual heat spike or leave it near the city’s normal late-July range. Amsterdam’s July average high is around 22°C, while the historical daily average for 31 July is about 24°C, which means the contract’s implied 0% YES price is far below what climatology alone would suggest for a typical summer day.[1][8]

That is a meaningful gap versus comparable summer-day outcomes. Amsterdam’s all-time highs for July can climb into the mid-30s °C, including a 35.8°C reading on 1 July 2025 and 36.4°C on 26 July 2019, showing that extreme outcomes are rare but not unprecedented.[14] Against that backdrop, a zero-implied chance looks more like an artefact of the market’s pricing than a view that warmth is impossible; on a broad weather basis, the consensus is usually that late July in Amsterdam is most often warm rather than cool, with average highs clustering in the low 20s °C.[6][10][13]

For traders, the key catalysts are the Schiphol station’s actual day-of temperature path and any forecast shifts in cloud cover, rain bands, or wind direction that affect afternoon heating. A current forecast source points to a warm, mostly cloudy day near 26°C with only a small drizzle risk, which would sit comfortably inside the lower temperature ranges rather than the hottest bins if it verified.[3] Since settlement is tied to the highest reading at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, intraday peaks matter more than the daily mean, and divergence between sportsbook-style weather pricing, prediction-market odds, and forecast models will mostly come down to how aggressively they weight a brief warm surge versus a steadier, muted reading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.