Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol will record its peak temperature for 16 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that day’s highest reading. The settlement relies on Wunderground data for the Schiphol station, closing at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date.

Historical July highs at Schiphol typically cluster between 22°C and 28°C, with 25°C appearing most frequently in recent decades. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the “YES” outcome on any specific range contradicts the Polymarket frontrunner, which assigns 54% to 25°C and 23% to 26°C [1]. This divergence suggests the “YES” label may refer to a narrow, unlikely threshold rather than the broader 25°C range favoured by traders, creating a clear odds-comparison gap between Polymarket’s granular ranges and the binary framing on Kalshi.

Traders should monitor the BBC Weather forecast for Schiphol, which currently shows 25°C as the expected peak, aligning with the Polymarket consensus [2]. Key catalysts include the release of the official Wunderground daily history after 12:00 UTC on 16 July, which will confirm the exact maximum and trigger settlement. No pre-announcement schedules exist for temperature data, so the sole dependency is the timely publication of the historical record on the Wunderground portal.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.